A blue Virginia in 2008

The conventional wisdom here in the Commonwealth is that Mark Warner will announce his candidacy for the Senate seat occupied by the retiring John Warner today. Warner’s likely opponent is either center-right Rep. Tom Davis or Virginia’s worst Governor since the Civil Rights era, Jim Gilmore. Simply put, Davis is the Republicans’ only hope. He is the fairly moderate (by Virginia standards anyway) protégé of John Warner and has a solid base in populous Fairfax County. Gilmore, on the other hand, damn near bankrupted the state. In fact, many here regard Warner, Gilmore’s successor in the Governor's Mansion, as something of the savior of Virginia’s credit rating. If I am Warner and Gilmore is my opponent, I don’t think I could highlight that enough. In short, if Gilmore wins the primary, it will doom the GOP’s chances of retaining the seat. Even if Davis wins the primary, he faces a real uphill battle against one of the most popular and successful Virginia politicians in recent memory. Which makes it these comments from a couple Virginia’s GOP political operatives all the funnier:

Several Republican strategists said Warner is no shoo-in for the Senate in 2008 and could face a bruising race. They said Warner had the luxury of never having held elected office when he ran for governor.

"This time, he has a record and he'll be held to it," said Chris LaCivita, an adviser to Davis, a possible candidate. LaCivita noted that Warner raised taxes as governor despite making repeated campaign promises that he would not.

"The free ride is over," said Dick Leggitt, an adviser to Gilmore.

Oh yeah guys, what with a record of fiscal responsibility and approval ratings in the mid-70’s, Warner must be quaking in his boots. The race has not even begun but this is Mark Warner's seat to lose.