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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Huge turnout in NH

Several reports out of New Hampshire indicate that people are coming out in numbers that will likely set records. That bodes well for change candidates like Obama and I am betting, Ron Paul. Furthermore, NH independents can vote in either Party’s Primary and they appear to be leaning heavily towards the Democratic ballot which is going to hurt McCain. Especially when you see sentiments like this:

Ward 11 Clerk Felice Goupil said by 7:45 a.m., 255 residents had voted and 22 new voters were registered at Gossler Park School.

"We're seeing a lot of new faces," she said. "...People are upset and they're coming out."

Upset voters don’t generally vote for the same old same old, so my guess is that Obama wins this thing going away, like by fifteen points or better. Clinton will likely take second with Edwards rounding out the top three.

On the Republican side, with Obama pulling in so much of McCain’s indie support, I think it will be Mitt Romney by maybe a point or to over McCain but that could go either way. Finally, given the numbers rolling out, I would not at all be surprised if Ron Paul shockes a lot of people and lands in third. The folks in New Hampshire love an insurgent candidate and have a wicked Libertarian streak that I think Paul appeals to.

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