My prediction

I think Obama gets 361 Electoral votes (the Kerry states plus Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada) and a popular vote win of 53 to 45%. That represents a healthy thumping by any estimation. Furthermore, we should be able to get a good idea of how things are going to go early. Specifically, if Obama wins Virginia, he wins the election. If he gets NC, he is going to whip McCain thoroughly. If he gets Georgia, pop the champagne folks - we are talking an epic blowout.

Considering that Obama has more or less salted this thing away, the real drama is whether the Democrats can deliver to President Obama a 60 seat super-majority in the Senate. That is going to be a very tough trick but it is within sight. My guess is that the Dems picked up seats in Virginia, Colorado, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Minnesota (that’s right people – say hello to Senator Franken), and Alaska. That gets us to 58 with possible upsets in McConnell in Kentucky and Chambliss in Georgia (two odious motherfuckers right there) that could get us to 60 but I am not counting on either of those.

In the House, I think the Democrats net 20 seats, bring the total to 255 – 180. My House guess is really just that, a guess. I really haven’t been following these races very closely because the Democrats are going to add to their already substantial margin there but my gut tells me that the GOP pulls a few more out than expected.