Looks like skull-cracking time in Iran

Iranian democracy (if one can call it that), is an odd bird indeed. The Guardian Council disqualifies from elections reformist politicians that they deem threatening to the system, thereby insuring a “safe” slate of candidates upon which the people may vote. Despite that amazingly undemocratic practice, the regime has, until now, valued the sanctity of the voting process and held fairly clean elections. If a candidate made it past the Council, there was little or no funny business regarding the vote tally and the will of the people (albeit one narrowed by censorship) was respected. For whatever reason, the regime decided to dispense with that tradition and opened up a Pandora’s Box. Now, with few good options, the question is where do the Ayatollahs go from here?

If they acquiesce to the protestors and allow a revote, they risk devastating the Iranian system’s legitimacy and touching off a second revolution.

If they decide to crack down on the protestors, they risk devastating the Iranian system’s legitimacy and touching off a second revolution.

If they do nothing, they look weak, risk emboldening the opposition, and merely delay the fight or flight decision.

Ayatollah Khamanei appears to have laid down his cards in an oddly disjointed and muddled speech today, declaring that the street protests will no longer be tolerated and ominously warned that opposition leaders will be held accountable if they persist.

It was not clear whether Iran’s government, made up of fractious power centers, was pursuing a calculated strategy or if the moves reflected internal disagreements, or even an uncertainty not apparent in Ayatollah Khamenei’s address.

“Most analysts believe the outreach is just to kill time and extend this while they search for a solution, although there doesn’t seem to be any,” said a political analyst in Tehran, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “This will only be a postponement of the inevitable, which is indeed a brutal crackdown.”

This promises to get ugly as hell.