33%

President Bush has a 33% approval rating according to the latest AP poll, tying his all time low score. The money quote from the article:

His handling of nearly every issue, from the Iraq war to foreign policy, contributed to the president's decline around the nation, even in the Republican-friendly South.

More sobering for the GOP are the number of voters who backed Bush in 2004 who are ready to vote Democratic in the fall's congressional elections — 19 percent.

Congressional Republicans are starting to freak out. They are so wedded to Bush that they can’t distance themselves on Iraq or any other major issue. They have simple carried his water for too long. These latest numbers seem to be reinforcing something Larry Sabato said last week:

Just over one month ago, the Crystal Ball argued that a larger wave than currently existed at the time would have to build in order for Republicans to lose their congressional majorities. At the time, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive races pointed more towards a "micro-wave" than a "macro-wave" for out-of-power Democrats.

But now, with a quarter of time elapsed between that pulse-reading and the election, surer signs are emerging that something more substantial than a "micro-wave" is heating up this summer.

It is undeniable that Republicans across the nation are weighed down by the fact they share a party affiliation with a disfavored president, and in most cases, a commitment to his unpopular war.

In this inhospitable climate, the GOP could well get burned worse than initially expected. At this stage, the Crystal Ball is shifting its outlook from a Democratic gain of 6-8 to a Democratic gain of 12-15 seats in the House. We also believe that our original guestimate of a Democratic gain of 2 or 3 seats in the Senate is probably too low; we now expect a Democratic Senate gain of a minimum of 3 seats and a maximum of 6 seats--that's right, we know that the Democrats would take over the Senate at 6. It is still a long shot, but it is not the long shot of long shots that it once was.

I remain skeptical that the Democrats could really pull off a takeover this year. We always seem to find a way to screw it up. After seeing three incumbents lose primaries, you can almost taste the voter dissatisfaction in the air. Voter turnout for the Connecticut primary was twice that of any Democratic contest in recent memory. People are pissed and ready to do something about it. I am still not fully convinced that we can win back either house but it sure is getting easier to be optimistic.