This is bad - really, really bad

Josh Marshall over at the Talking Points Memo wrote a disturbing post regarding the sudden resignation and departure of the Saudi ambassador to the US. He goes on to explore the possibility that the neo-cons in the Pentagon are seriously considering a triple bank shot of regional alliance realignment in which the US trades our traditional Sunni allies (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) for Shiites (Iran, Iraq, and the northern, oil soaked Shiite territory of Saudi Arabia). To accomplish this feat, the US will ramp up troop levels in Iraq to, once and for all, crush the insurgency and install a pro-US government. Folks are referring to this as ‘doubling down’; expect to hear a lot more of that term. Who knows where we get the troops from, but I expect this strategy will break the back of the Army and Marines. Both services are looking at a pretty bare cupboard right now. This would be Bad Option #1. Anyway, the speculation is that the Saudis got wind of this idea and, as one can imagine, didn’t think much of it. And just like that, the ambassador is gone.

To make matters worse, the Saudis are now saying that if the US pulls out, the Kingdom will back the Iraqi Sunnis. That move would essentially transform the Iraqi civil war into a proxy fight between the Saudi backed Sunnis, the Iranian back Shiites, and the semi-independent Kurds looking to establish a sovereign Kurdistan. For all intents and purposes, Iraq’s neighbors can be drawn into this fight. If that happens, we are looking at is the worst possible outcome for Iraq: partition and a larger, regional conflict. I will call this Bad Option #2.

Presumably, the Kurds declare independence in the North, most likely triggering a war with Turkey. The West would probably form a Sunni Iraq, and the South and East create either a Shiite sovereign state or are absorbed by Iran. Now for the really fun part; Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran can’t stand each other because of their religious differences and their ongoing regional rivalry. Those two nations dislike Turkey because of the brutal legacy of the Ottoman Empire. There are long memories in this neighborhood and abuse at the hands of the Ottoman Turks 80 or 100 years ago is still fresh in mind. Plus, the Turks are largely secular. As such, Turkey has no taste at all for the dominance of religion in Iran or Saudi Arabia and vice versa. Further complicating things, Turkey has an army capable of taking on both nations and capturing a good bit of the oil in northern Iraq.

In this scenario, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are nose to nose, each with an ax to grind against the others, and an incentive to get into the fight. Now, all of this is pure speculation based on rumor, some history, and my own lack of optimism when it comes to US Iraq policy so take it for a grain of salt. But if this thing plays out as I have described, there will be millions of lives, billions of barrels of oil, and a good chunk of the world economy on the line.

So let's recap the choices that our policy has birthed. If we stay, Bad Option #1 may just throw the US military into a death spiral by following to ‘double down’ strategy. If we leave, Bad Option #2 opens the door to a regional conflict that would enflame the whole Middle East and lay waste to the world economy. Finally, we have Bad Option #3, stay the course and hope something, anything breaks our way and gives us other, hopefully less bad, avenues out of this quagmire.

Heck of a job, Bushie, heck of a job…