Upping the ante

By all accounts in the press, the new Iraq “strategy” seems to be escalating the number of troops in country in a renewed attempt to pacify Baghdad and the surrounding environs. That this is a bad idea should be obvious on its face. The fact of the matter is that Bush can’t scale back troop numbers; that would be tantamount to admitting he fucked up. And as we all know, the last thing this crowd can do is fest up to a mistake. So that’s out. He can’t keep troop levels the same either. The current plan has failed. Everyone knows and understands that. Still, the Administration has to be seen doing something to try and fix the mess. The only other option then is sending more soldiers in the fray. Which leads me to the three rules of gambling as taught to me by my father.

The first rule of gambling is to only bet what you can afford to lose. That seems simple but the temptation to break #1 mounts quickly when you hit a losing streak. The second rule is no matter how badly you have lost, you can always dig the hole deeper by staying at the table. A good gambler knows when to cut his loses so that he may fight another day. It is hard to get up from the game when you have gotten your ass handed to you but sometimes, you have to take the beating like a man, then get up and walk away. The third rule of gambling (and really, this is just the law of averages) is that over the long haul, the house always wins.

Following that logic, escalation violates all three rules (as I have defined them anyway). The US has bet and lost more than it can afford already. Our international reputation, 3000 dead troops and half a trillion bucks have already been lost. Throwing in for one more hand is such a long, long shot at this point, it makes no sense; especially when you consider the implications of Rule #3. We are fighting an insurgency/civil war on foreign turf. Despite our superior training and equipment, this is still their house. In such circumstances, if you don’t win big and early, the chances are you are going to lose. The longer you stay at the table, the less luck matters and simple statistics takes over.

History has taught us repeatedly that a determined and supplied insurrection will, over the long term, eventually win. Look at Vietnam vs. the US, India vs. the British Empire, Algeria vs. France, American Colonists vs. the Brits, Mao’s Communists vs. the Chinese Nationalist government, and on and on and on. It is not really a question of if but when. We lost the chance (if there was one and I’m not convinced there was) to win early. Now is the time to get up from the table. By upping the ante, we are ensuring further loses. The only remaining variable is the degree.