Rumble in the Commonwealth

Warren Fiske has a great column in the Pilot today in which he outlines the coming battle to replace the retiring John Warner. The tone is just right.

A long-brewing confrontation between Virginia's past two governors appears certain to be played out before voters next year, as Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore move toward a show down for the U.S. Senate.

Warner, 52, announced his candidacy in September. Gilmore, 58, is expected to toss in his hat before Thanksgiving, according to several of his political advisers.

"These men don't like each other, they don't respect each other, and there should be a lot of fireworks," said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington.

As Farnsworth said, these two guys absolutely loathe each other. In fact, each has essentially called out the other as a liar and opportunist. The background:

Warner succeeded Gilmore and quickly discovered that the state faced a $3.8 billion shortfall in revenues needed to balance the budget. He referred to the deficit as "the mess I inherited " and accused Gilmore of concealing the state's financial problems.

As a candidate for governor in 2001, Warner repeatedly vowed that he would not raise taxes. But in 2004, he prodded the General Assembly into passing a record $1.5 billion tax increase to help education, health and public safety. Warner said he would have never made the tax pledge if Gilmore had been forthcoming about the state's declining economy.

Gilmore said Warner always had plenty of information about the state's finances. He has angrily accused Warner of breaking a campaign promise and putting the blame on others.

This contest is both personal and ideological. Both Parties want the seat in the worst way and will spend what it takes to keep their guy in it. I expect the race to be nasty, expensive, and fought in way that Warner has never had to compete; bare-knuckled and no holds barred. As it stands now, Warner is a prohibitive favorite but as George Allen proved last cycle, things can change quickly if one candidate is not on his game. I can’t wait to see if Warner, like Webb, has what it takes to make it to the Big Leagues. This one should be fun to watch.