Slow burn

Somalia may not be the absolute worst place on the planet but it is pretty close and as hard as it is to believe, things there may actually be getting worse.

The African Union promised to send 8,000 peacekeepers to help. But because of the focus on building a 26,000-strong force for Darfur, only 1,600 Ugandans have arrived. Clearly, some of Somalia’s problems are not the government’s fault. Neither is the drought-flood-drought cycle that has left an impenetrable crust of rock-hard silt over Somalia’s fields, causing the worst cereal harvest in 13 years.

But most Western diplomats agree that unless the transitional government reaches out to Islamist elements and becomes more inclusive, it will fail — like the 13 transitional governments that came before it.

“This government doesn’t control one inch of territory from the Kenyan border up to Mogadishu,” said a Western diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing diplomatic protocol.

Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the warlord turned transitional president, recently forced out the prime minister and is looking to replace him with a leader who can bridge clan divides.

“This is basically the last chance,” the Western diplomat said.

Since 1991, some level of disorder, from low level civil war to straight up anarchy, has dominated Somali society. Fourteen governments in sixteen years has to be some kind of record, though one akin to being elected the nicest guy in prison. Given what a complete disaster Somalia has become, it is no wonder that so many governments have failed. In keeping with that auspicious tradition, it appears that the latest transitional authority is about to transition into bedlam. This is the Britney Spears of nations, unable to get its shit together, lurching from one self-inflicted crisis to another while the rest of the world looks on, at turns curious, horrified, and unsure of what it can do to help.