Happy Halloween

Once again, our annual viewing of "The Life and Death of a Pumpkin". Enjoy!

27 minutes and 10 seconds of hope

If only my pumkpin could vote...

Run, Sarah, Run!

There have been tons of rumors of infighting between the Palin and McCain factions within the campaign. It seems that the McCain people are ticked because Palin is a “diva” who lacks discipline while Palin is pissed at the McCain folks for their handling of her and the potential damage done to her future prospects. Apparently, Palin believes that she has a realistic shot at 2012. And while I think that belief is delusional, incredibly egomaniacal, and absolutely hilarious, I truly relish the thought of her tangling with Mitt Romney. The collected ambition between the two of them would have its own gravity and both are utterly without conscience so you know that race would be an entertaining romp in the gutter.

Turning the Commonwealth Blue

The last four polls taken in Virginia have Obama up by a minimum of 7 points and each has him over 50%. It has been 44 years since a Democrat carried Virginia but in 8 days, that is going to change.

Undecided

Lo and I went canvassing for Obama yesterday and we were shocked at the number of undecided voters out there. Seriously, if one pays any attention to this stuff at all, how can one still be undecided? What bit of crucial information do these folks lack that has prevented them from making a choice at this point in the race? I just don’t get it.

How big a win?

Obama is running even with rural voters. For an elitist Arab, and anti-American Islamic terrorist, that is just fucking remarkable.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – After trailing by 10 points in U.S. rural areas, Democrat Barack Obama is neck-and-neck with Republican John McCain among rural voters in 13 swing states, a potentially key group for winning the White House, according to a poll released on Thursday.

Obama was supported by 46 percent and McCain by 45 percent of 841 likely voters surveyed from October 5-21, as U.S. financial turmoil deepened, according to the poll commissioned by the nonpartisan Center for Rural Strategies in Whitesburg, Kentucky.

A month ago, the poll showed McCain led 51-41. This time, respondents said Obama would do better than McCain on the economy, taxes and "the financial crisis in the country."

Nearly 20 percent of Americans live in rural areas. They tend to be social and fiscal conservatives. President George W. Bush won rural districts nationwide by 19 points in 2004.

People, that is just unheard of. With the huge margins Obama will likely run up in the cities, we are moving into landslide territory here. What’s more, the latest Big 10 Battleground poll had Obama up in every state they polled by a minimum of nine points. Not to belabor the point but Obama is more competitive in Georgia than McCain is Pennsylvania. If you told me that six months ago, I would have laughed. We may be looking at not just a blowout victory for Obama but perhaps a major realignment in American politics, similar to the 1980 Reagan revolution. Here’s to running up the score.

Ridiculous

McCain has started what he calls the “Joe the Plumber” tour in Florida. OMG – hellalame. There is less than two weeks until the election and Team McCain is using some dude from Ohio, a guy that stands to receive a tax break under Obama’s economic plan, as their closing argument? WTF? No seriously, is that the best they can think of?

This may be the silliest stunt McCain has pulled thus far and that is saying something considering gimmick-a-minute nature of his campaign.

Action/Reaction

A new WSJ poll has Obama leading by 10 at 52%-42%. Not surprisingly, Sarah Palin is proving to be the biggest issue for McCain.

That doesn’t appear to be the case with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin. Fifty-five percent of respondents say she’s not qualified to serve as president if the need arises, up five points from the previous poll.

In addition, for the first time, more voters have a negative opinion of her than a positive one. In the survey, 47 percent view her negatively, versus 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

That’s a striking shift since McCain chose Palin as his running mate in early September, when she held a 47 to 27 percent positive rating.

Now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy - ahead of continuing President Bush’s policies, enacting economic policies that only benefit the rich and keeping too high of a troop presence in Iraq.

I would say that McCain’s pick of Palin was too mavericky by half.

John McCain is Bin Laden’s BFF

As if McCain’s campaign wasn't floundering enough, the AP is running a story Al-Qaeda supporters declare McCain their preferred candidate. Ouch.

Endorsements

I have always been rather skeptical of the supposed importance of newspaper endorsing one candidate or the other. I have never heard of someone being swayed by the awesome power of a daily’s editorial board. It seems to me to be a whole lot of navel gazing. That said, a candidate would prefer to get the endorsement rather than not, if for no other reasons than it is good PR.

And while I doubt that the Chicago Tribune’s endorsement will have any consequence greater than any other paper, its historical significance is pretty damn striking. For the first time in its 161 year history, the Trib is backing the Democrat.

...And but minutes after I posted this, I see that Colin Powell is endorsing Obama as well. In the grand scheme of things, it is hard to see how that helps Obama beyond generating some good press but it will surely make some of the Beltway conservatives livid. Sean Hannity ought to be put on suicide watch.

God bless Will Ferrell

He is taking his George Bush caricature to Broadway. No doubt, it will be hilarious.

David Brooks finds a nut

The fact that both Bill Kristol and David Brooks have New York Times columns sometimes makes me feel like I need to steel wool my brain. Hacks the both of them and frequently insufferable know-it-alls to boot but every once in a while, a little bit of reality slips past their defenses and onto the Editorial page. Today was Brooks’ day, in which he grudgingly admits that Obama fellow may be alright after all.

He doesn’t have F.D.R.’s joyful nature or Reagan’s happy outlook, but he is analytical. That’s why this William Ayers business doesn’t stick. He may be liberal, but he is never wild. His family is bourgeois. His instinct is to flee the revolutionary gesture in favor of the six-point plan.

This was not evident back in the “fierce urgency of now” days, but it is now. And it is easy to sketch out a scenario in which he could be a great president. He would be untroubled by self-destructive demons or indiscipline. With that cool manner, he would see reality unfiltered. He could gather — already has gathered — some of the smartest minds in public policy, and, untroubled by intellectual insecurity, he could give them free rein. Though he is young, it is easy to imagine him at the cabinet table, leading a subtle discussion of some long-term problem.

You can almost feel how much it hurt him to write this.

Apparently it wasn’t even close

While I thought that Obama won last night, I didn’t really think it was a decisive victory. Clearly, I was wrong.

The results over at CBS show Obama to have scored the biggest victory to date: "Fifty-three percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight's debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won. Twenty-four percent saw the debate as a draw."

[Snip]

Over at CNN, a separate poll of several hundred debate watchers again favored the Democrat by large margins: 58 percent for Obama to McCain's 31 percent. Perhaps more importantly, McCain's favorable rating dropped 51 to 49 while his unfavorable rating increased from 45 percent to 49 percent. Obama ended up with 66 percent favorable rating.

[Snip]

Meanwhile, virtually the entire Frank Luntz focus group on Fox News, which was staged tonight in Miami, said that Barack Obama won the debate. Luntz termed it a "clear majority," but not one person raised their hand when asked if they thought McCain won.
Said Luntz: "None had made a decision to support Sen. Obama before the debate, but more than half supported him after the debate. It was a good night for Barack Obama."

Ouch. It looks like McCain’s Angry Old Guy routine didn’t go over well at all – go figure.

WTF?

I am not sure what you call this but it sure as hell ain’t what I would call “Presidential”.

















(hat tip to OW)

My take on tonight’s debate

John McCain believes that Sarah Palin’s personal experience with her Down’s baby makes her an expert in autism, just like her residency in Alaska makes in her an expert in both Russia and energy policy. Ugh – so stupid.

Every time Barack Obama disagreed with McCain, McCain looked like he was ready to jump across the table and strangle Obama with his mike cord. Seriously, I felt like I was watching an anger management stress test. Obama, on the other hand was cool, calm and collected. I may be a partisan but somebody ought to issue a restraining order against McCain being anywhere near our launch codes.

As for Joe the Plumber, well that motherfucker is getting paid. If I had known that pipes could pay me a quarter million a year, I would have gone into plumbing. If he is going to pay more taxes against a salary that in one year could buy my house, fuck him. I say pay up.

McCain’s angry grouch routine coupled with the incredulous blinking was really, really off-putting and just because McCain looks nothing like George Bush, his economic plan does. But make no mistake, McCain is not George Bush – Sarah Palin is.

Deficit spending in a recession is not necessarily a bad thing, something neither candidate made clear. That said, Obama needs to better lay out which spending priorities are a must versus those which fall into the nice to have category. At times he sounded like a classic profligate liberal spender. His argument, however, would have been more compelling if Bush, McCain and the Republicans had not already spent all the money.

I would have loved Obama to lay it down and say hell yes there will be a litmus test for my Supreme Court nominees; same for McCain. Both danced around that question like they were Baryshnikov at the Met.

Watching McCain enunciate how, in his opinion, Palin was more qualified to be President than Joe Biden was, IMHO, one of the great lines of disingenuous political bullshit that I have ever seen in my life. I was physically pained watching that tortured response; really, it was something to see.

Having the GOP candidate bitch about the Democrat’s negative campaign ads was just silly. For the love of God, Karl Rove anyone? After his Swiftboating, I am sure John Kerry found that especially rich. Indeed, I believe I can hear laughter all the way from Beacon Hill. Again, fuck ‘em.

Final thoughts- Obama won it but not convincingly. He was preventing the Big Play and it showed. I would have called it a draw were it not for McCain coming off as such a cantankerous ass. Really, Obama did not win so much as McCain lost it.

Owned

I love Matt Taibbi. He is among the most poignant and biting satirists writing today. I mean the guy is just scary smart, has a wicked wit and can throw a rhetorical haymaker with the best of them. Bear witness to his verbal mauling of wingnut douchebag and National Review writer Byron York (hat tip to DailyKos).

M.T.: What a surprise that you mention Franklin Raines. Do you even know how a CDS works? Can you explain your conception of how these derivatives work? Because I get the feeling you don't understand. Or do you actually think that it was a few tiny homeowner defaults that sank gigantic companies like AIG and Lehman and Bear Stearns? Explain to me how these default swaps work, I'm interested to hear.

Because what we're talking about here is the difference between one homeowner defaulting and forty, four hundred, four thousand traders betting back and forth on the viability of his loan. Which do you think has a bigger effect on the economy?

B.Y.: Are you suggesting that critics of Fannie and Freddie are talking about the default of a single homeowner?

M.T.: No. That is what you call a figure of speech. I'm saying that you're talking about individual homeowners defaulting. But these massive companies aren't going under because of individual homeowner defaults. They're going under because of the myriad derivatives trades that go on in connection with each piece of debt, whether it be a homeowner loan or a corporate bond. I'm still waiting to hear what your idea is of how these trades work. I'm guessing you've never even heard of them.

I mean really. You honestly think a company like AIG tanks because a bunch of minorities couldn't pay off their mortgages?

B.Y.: When you refer to "Phil Gramm's Commodities Future Modernization Act," are you referring to S.3283, co-sponsored by Gramm, along with Senators Tom Harkin and Tim Johnson?

M.T.: In point of fact I'm talking about the 262-page amendment Gramm tacked on to that bill that deregulated the trade of credit default swaps.

Tick tick tick. Hilarious sitting here while you frantically search the Internet to learn about the cause of the financial crisis — in the middle of a live chat interview.

B.Y.: Look, you can keep trying to make this a specifically partisan and specifically Gramm-McCain thing, but it simply isn't. We've gone on for fifteen minutes longer than scheduled, and that's enough. Thanks.

M.T.: Thanks. Note, folks, that the esteemed representative of the New Republic has no idea what the hell a credit default swap is. But he sure knows what a minority homeowner looks like.

That, people, is an asswhipping of Biblical proportions.

Not so good at multitasking

J. has been running a fever and I have spent the past day and half at home with him, trying to work and keep him happy at the same time. And try as I might, I will not be getting the Super-Dad trophy or the Employee of the Month Award any time soon. I feel like this is one of those situations in which neither job is being done very well.

Here ends today’s pity party.

Tonight’s special comment was indeed special

Keith Olbermann just tore into McCain and his rallies' ever more threatening tone towards the wellbeing of Senator Obama. It was a bravura performance. I will post the video as soon as I can find it.

...and here it is.

Kind of old news but...

...how awesome is it that Paul Krugman won the Nobel for Economics?
Answer: so very awesome. Hurray for one of the good guys.

Better

I hate like hell having to use taxpayer money to bail out Wall Street but at least with this plan, we get something for it. That alone makes this a better plan than just writing those assholes a check.

The Duhbate

For starters, the format was dumb, dumb, dumb. This no-follow up rule has to go – super lame. I would have been more interested if the two of them had a real back and forth, with follow-ups, etc. Brokaw, whom I like, seemed to hue rigidly to the time limits, rules and what not. That stifled any opportunity to have a real exchange. I was praying that Brokaw would say fuck it, let them go, and actually provided an entertaining debate. Plus, Obama would have had the opportunity to address McCain’s constant lying in a more direct manner. That would have been good too. Oh well, maybe next time.

Format aside, I thought Obama came across way better than McCain. Less angry, more positive – at points McCain sounded like an ancient crank yelling at the kids to get off his lawn, pull up their pants and turn down that damn music. The “that guy” comment came off as flippant and rude and I will bet that he pays a price for it, as well he should. Almost as bad, McCain was shuffling around the stage like he was heading to Barca-Lounger for the Lawrence Welk Show and some Metamucil, looking old, sounding old, bitching old. The visuals were just awful.

McCain may be “the maverick” but he is also an old, pugnacious, disrespectful prick. This debate probably sealed that image.

Cutting out the middle man

The Fed has announced that it will begin buying billions of dollars in short term commercial paper. It seems to me that if the money market is too scared to lend then having the Fed fill that gap is the proper solution because it potentially solves a few of issues at once. First, companies can get access to short term credit, which is not readily available right now, to meet payrolls and purchase inventory. Second, the cost of this debt to the borrowers will be much lower than that which is commercially available. Third, the government can inject a bit of stability and liquidity in the markets without reckless endangering taxpayer money or lining the pockets of the Wall Street jackasses that got us into this mess.

Now, smarter people than me can find reasons why this is a bad idea I am sure, but this make sense or at least more so than giving the bankers a ton of free cash.

Obama opens a BIG lead in the Commonwealth

SurveyUSA has Obama up 10, Suffolk University up 12 and both have him over the 50% threshold. If one poll had come back with a result like this, I would call it an outlier, but two on the same day? This is likely the real McCoy.

That would also explain why the Virginia GOP is officially freaking out right now. If Obama can take Virginia by that kind of margin or even close to it, then not only does that pretty much seal McCain’s fate, the down ticket losses for the state Republicans will be substantial (See Drake, Thelma). Seriously, this has potentially huge implications both here and nationally.

And the mudslinging begins

John McCain and Sideshow Sarah are having some real problems. Their economic message has been by and large rejected by the public (McCain’s erratic behavior didn’t help either), Palin’s folksy hockey-momness has turned out to be not so awesome, and Obama has begun to pull away. In short, they are running out of time and options. Thus, the McCain campaign has jumped into the gutter with both feet.

In an interview with conservative The New York Times columnist William Kristol published Monday, the Alaska governor said there should be more discussion about Wright, Obama's pastor of 20 years at Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago. The Democratic candidate denounced Wright and severed ties with the church last spring after videotapes surfaced showing Wright making anti-American and anti-Semitic comments from the pulpit.

Wright had appeared to be off limits for the McCain campaign ever since McCain himself condemned the North Carolina Republican Party in April for an ad that called Obama "too extreme" because Wright was his pastor. "Unfortunately, all I can do is, in as visible a way as possible, disassociate myself from that kind of campaigning," McCain said at the time.

When Kristol pressed Palin about Wright, she replied, "I don't know why that association isn't discussed more, because those were appalling things that that pastor had said about our great country."

She continued, "To me, that does say something about character. But, you know, I guess that would be a John McCain call on whether he wants to bring that up."

At a morning rally in Florida, Palin kept up her criticism of Obama's ties to Ayers, a founder of the violent Weather Underground group blamed for several bombings during the Vietnam War era, when Obama was a child.

One of the great legal maxims is “If you have the law is on your side, pound the law. If you have the facts are on your side, pound the facts. If you have neither is on your side, pound the table.” Well, Team McCain looked around, weighed their options, and started to pound the bejeezus out of the table. They have nothing left but to peddle lies and distortions, smear Obama’s character and generally bring the level of discourse down into the realm of the third grade playground hissy fit - classy. And I might add, not terribly Presidential either.

One other point – when the Obama campaign retaliates by bringing up McCain’s involvement with the Keating 5 scandal, please note that everyone on the Right will declare that to be irrelevant old news, water under the bridge, and ancient history. So if you scoring at home; shit an acquaintance did when Obama was a kid: totally germane and in need of a full discussion. Stuff McCain did as a grown-up (presumably anyway) Senator, immaterial and inappropriate – the man was a POW for goodness sake.

It is gonna be an ugly four weeks, get out your hip waders.

Almost forgot

Today is the last day for voter registration in Virginia. Applications must be in the Registrar's Office by close of business or postmarked no later than today. Here is a link the Va. Board of Elections with all of the info you need to register.

The bailout is not the new hotness

While the Dow is not the most instructive index when trying to get a grip on the markets as a whole, this is unmistakable. In the opening hour and a half of trading, it has plummeted 500 points and blown through the important psychological floor of 10,000. That tells me that the markets have little faith in the bailout plan that just passed. So what’s next Secretary Paulsen?

Swept

At least when the Cubs fail, they do so spectacularly.

All together now, “There’s always next year”.

Noonan’s Accidental Moment of Clarity

As I said yesterday, Palin’s performance would be considered acceptable if she was able to speak in moderately coherent sentences. Peggy Noonan’s piece today is pretty typical of the conservative reaction to the debate, by which I mean insanely and effusively praising a performance that would have been judged as pedestrian by any regular standard.

She killed. She had him at "Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe?" She was the star. He was the second male lead, the good-natured best friend of the leading man. She was not petrified but peppy.

Oh please Peggy, get a grip. Palin didn’t crack up but she wasn’t crisp, spending most of the debate talking in platitudes and delivering rambling non-answers. On the points, Biden clearly ran circles around her. It wasn’t even close. But according to the Noonan’s fantasy debate, Palin is the second coming of Daniel Webster. But to Noonan’s credit, she was spot on, if by mistake, when she declared,

She [Palin] is not a person of thought but of action.

Too true. She is indeed George Bush in lipstick. Thanks for clearing that up Peggy.

File under meaningless comparisons

I saw this bit of inane ridiculousness over at the Corner.

re: Free Palin [Mark R. Levin]

I would LOVE to question Katie Couric about her knowledge of the Constitution, let alone Supreme Court decisions.

Wow, this should be obvious but Katie Couric is not running for Vice President. One does not normally quiz ones doctor, mechanic or even TV news anchor on his or her expertise in ConLaw because it is irrevelent to their job. The Vice Presidency, well, that’s a position where some acquaintance with the Constitution and the Supreme Court is kind of a requirement. Moron…

Bringing the funny

Deus Ex Malcontent is fast becoming a daily must read for me.

Scoring the VP debate

The expectations for Palin have been set so low that barring her making any breathtakingly uninformed statements or breaking down into a sobbing mess, the punditry will call it a draw. Seriously, if she passes the Rain Man threshold, her performance will be regarded as adequate. Yes, that sucks but she would have to outdo Tina Fey’s impersonation before they call it otherwise.

Action - Reaction

Obama has been trending up in most of the battleground states lately and a new poll from CNN/Time shows him with a statistically significant lead in Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, and Virginia as well as pulling into a tie in Missouri. Now, all of this stuff is fluid but if these numbers hold, we are starting to move into blowout territory.

Team McCain must be freaking out about now. They are watching this thing slip away and in response, I expect McCain to really amp up the nasty any moment now (Round 2 of Rev. Wright, the Muslim crap, etc...).