Benjamins

Holy cow! Obama raised $32 million in January. That is a TON of cash for a single month. Unfortunately, he is going to need every penny to compete with Hillary in New York, New Jersey, and California. But it is good to know that if he cannot beat her out for the nomination, it will not be for lack of cash.

The importance of Edwards

It is a shame that John Edwards’ populist message never really caught on with the general public, though it is not all that surprising. In a race in which the media frame was always going to be “Is American ready for the first female/black President?” the Southern white guy was going to have to fight for attention. Nowhere was that more obvious than in the debates. But Edwards did bring a powerful voice to the issues of poverty, labor, and social justice that the Obama and Clinton campaigns did not. For that, his efforts were commendable. Let us hope that he continues to advocate.

It is rumored that he is being considered by both campaigns for Attorney General. I certainly hope that to be true. We need people like Edwards in government; people who will fight to improve the lot of their fellow citizens. That is an attribute sorely missed in recent times.

No way, not again

Ralph Nader needs to go away. Seriously, hasn’t he fucked the Left enough already? So please, please, please Ralph, shut the fuck up, pack up your ego and GO HOME.

The Hillary Problem

Mike Luckovick is, as usual, spot on.

My son, the comedian

So I am sitting on the floor with J. watching cartoons when a commercial comes on, featuring a crying baby. J. looks up at me and says, “Daddy, baby’s crying”.

To which I reply, “Yes he is. Do you know why the baby is crying?”

He answers, in all earnestness, “Baby has to take a baff(bath).”

Note: this is a whole lot funnier if you have ever wrestled a screaming toddler into the tub.

Good news

I take enormous comfort in knowing that this evening’s State Of the Union address will be the last of the Bush presidency. We are almost done with him people, and thank God. Now can I get an Amen from the congregation?

I think it is also worth noting that the once high-flying Presidential aspirations of 9/11’s America’s Mayor are pretty much grounded. Even though Giuliani went all-in on Florida, he is trailing badly in the polls. When he loses in the Sunshine State, his run will be over and we can all say sayonara to the petty, blood-thirsty, vindictive little man. And if I may salt the wound even further, his campaign strategy was as bad as his comb-over and just as poorly executed.

Down to brass tacks

I must admit I was secretly hoping that John Edwards could pull a rabbit out of his hat in South Carolina and make a real go at the nomination. To my mind, his populist message is probably the most closely aligned with my own thinking, politically speaking. But with his resounding defeat in SC, that doesn’t really matter now. This is, for better or worse, a two person race, the winner of which will likely become President. Given that reality, the choice is simple – go Obama!

Now, I am not one of those people with a visceral dislike for Hillary, though I must say her speaking voice drives me nuts. Seriously, is it just me or is she, quite frequently, completely atonal? Anyway, I simply do not believe that she can be an effective President when 45% of the country cannot stand the sight of her. I think her nomination would galvanize the Right, unifying it behind a common enemy. Having Bill run around, acting like an ass, is not going to help matters either. There is just way too much baggage here.

And don’t get me wrong, it is not as though Obama is without sin. His scheme for Social Security is utterly wrong-headed and his healthcare plan hardly qualifies as bold or visionary. Potentially even more dangerous is his insistence that he can operate in a bipartisan fashion. If Obama thinks Mitch McConnell or John Boehner are going to roll over in the face of his bipartisan awesomeness, he is both foolish and naïve. In the very best of situations, one must negotiate with those snakes at arm’s length. Hopefully, he understands that today’s GOP views compromise as something that Democrats do.

That said, I do believe that Barack Obama could be a transformational figure in American politics; perhaps not FDR but maybe JFK. He has an historic opportunity before him. We, as a nation, have a lot of fences to mend. Electing a black liberal from Chicago, the anti-Bush really, will go a long way to proving to the rest of the world we are willing to listen to their concerns, rather dictate policy. We need a President that can show other nations that we have recovered from our collective 9/11 induced insanity, that we think torture is antithetical to our principles, that we value the opinions of our friends and allies, and that war is no longer the first option in American foreign policy. In short, we need someone that can restore our nations’ standing in the world. I believe that Barack Obama gives us the best chance to accomplish that.

Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction

If this came out of Hollywood, the critics would dismiss it as contrived and too implausible to be credible.

Stimulas

Senator Judd Gregg (R-New Hampshire) is no economist.

Though often one of Bush's most reliable allies in the Senate, Gregg cast doubt on the President's claim that tax rebates would spur Americans to spend more money, thereby strengthening the economy. Many of the products Americans tend to buy are produced in other countries, Gregg noted.

"Maybe it stimulates the Chinese economy," Gregg said on the Senate floor yesterday. "I'm not so sure it stimulates our economy."

I thought free trade was a good thing, something to be encouraged because it benefits everyone. Apparently not, if one is to believe Gregg. I guess the leaders of the modern economic conservative movement that have been preaching the free trade gospel are actually plants for the ChiComs, seeking to expand the Chinese economy via American consumers. We have been duped people. So that is it, no more shopping at Wal-Mart.

Mo’ music

After four years without a new album, Rancid is heading back to the studio. Brett Gurewitz, of Epitaph and Bad Religion, is slated to produce. That is a very good thing.

So for a bit of fun, let’s everyone sing along to the opening stanza of Radio:

Never fell in love
until i fell in love with you
Never know what a good time was until i had a good time with you
If you wanna get the feeling and you wanna get it right
Then the music gotta be loud
for when the music hit
i feel no pain at all

That is some beautiful damn poetry right there.

The Joys of Fatherhood – Potty Training edition

So the family had a MAJOR triumph this weekend as our big boy J. finally used the toilet to do his business (BTW, Lo totally gets the credit for this development – best mother ever). It is so odd what constitutes big news now that I am a father but let me tell you, getting over this first hurdle in the potty-training game is, to my mind, akin to nothing short of man landing on the Moon. You may think that to be hyperbole and I understand why but you would be wrong nonetheless. And while my pre-fatherhood brain thinks it is a little weird to be brimming with pride that my son whizzed in a plastic bowl, nothing says happiness like high-fiving a pantless 2 year old while his magic commode plays the “Hurray, you just peed in the potty” theme song. In my ho-hum, hum-drum world, that is a win for the ages.

Not to brag but…

I bet the Baked Ziti I am having for lunch, homemade by my Jersey Italian mother-in-law, is way better than what you are eating. I am just saying…

I heart Matt Taibbi

Journalist who can cover politics with any sort of intelligence and depth are in damn short supply. Matt Taibbi is among the very best of that small population. Here is why:

This 2008 presidential race looked interesting once, a thrillingly up-for-grabs affair in which real issues and real ground-up voter anger threatened to wrest control of America's politics from the Washington Brahmins who usually puppeteer this process from afar. And while the end result in Iowa -- a historic and inspirational Obama victory, coupled with a hilariously satisfying behind-the-woodshed third-place ass-whipping for status quo gorgon Hillary Clinton -- was compelling, the media has done its best to turn a once-promising race into an idiotic exchange of Nerf-insults, delivered at rah-rah campaign events utterly indistinguishable from scholastic pep rallies. "If there's policy in this race," one veteran campaign reporter tells me with a sad laugh, "I haven't noticed it."

And while it's tempting to blame the candidates, deep in my black journalist's heart I know it isn't all their fault.

We did this. The press. America tried to give us a real race, and we turned it into a bag of shit, just in the nick of time.

Indeed.

Writer’s Strike

I haven’t written much about this because to me, it is pretty obvious the writers are the aggrieved party in this dispute and the holdout executives are behaving like a bunch of greedy dicks. If Letterman and the Weinsteins can cut a deal with their writers, giving them a few cents more on every DVD is not going to bankrupt the industry. And while this is THE ISSUE for Hollywood types and “Lost” addicts, this strike does not affect your average person all that much.

Having said that, it appears that the deal negotiated by the director’s guild may guide the way for an eventual contract for the writers and “Office” junkies the nation over can get their fix.

Passing icons

Bobby Fischer was a bore, a genius, a lunatic anti-Semite, and the greatest American chess player of all-time. Graham Bowley has a terrific obit for a conflicted and controversial but nonetheless brilliant American legend.

Somewhat more depressing was the passing of Wham-O co-founder Richard Knerr. I LOVED Wham-O toys when I was a kid. The Slip-and-Slide, the Hula Hoop, the Frisbees and Silly String were all CLASSICS, but the SuperBall is, IMHO, the best of the lot. They are cheap, small, simple, and just dangerous enough to be fun yet relatively harmless for eight year old boys. At times, our house was just lousy with the things. I have had, over the years, teachers, parents, school bus drivers, even my choir instructor confiscate a Superball from me but my brother and I always had a couple laying around. That was the true greatness behind the Superball; they are easily attainable and roundly reviled by nearly every authority figure in a kid’s life. As such, the SuperBall provided me and countless other children an abundant supply of adult irritation and that, I am sure, would make Mr. Knerr quite proud. Douglas Martin, also in the Times, has a good piece on this great American inventor.

The Sneeze rules

Pure comic gold.

I think this cake shows a sense of whimsy. While the execution is a bit minimalist, he did a lovely job of capturing the intimate moment before two young men become involved with their lady friend.

Do yourself a favor and click the link.

Kenya

I had hoped that the simmering ethno-political conflict in Kenya would ease enough for cooler heads to prevail. Alas, this appears not to be the case. I find it especially troubling that Kenya of all countries is falling victim to the same self-destructive tribalism that has wrecked the rest of the Horn of Africa. After all, Kenya has been relatively stable since the late 60’s, something almost unimaginable when you consider that her neighbors include Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, and Sudan. This was the one decent country surrounded by the Nations of the Damned; living proof that a healthy and thriving society can be built and sustained in that part of the world. The recent disputed election destroyed all of that and kicked off a wave of bloody ethnic violence. Now the police are getting involved, which will only escalate the hostilities. This situation will only be solved through negotiation. Cops using tear gas and truncheons are not the answer. President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga need to swallow some pride and work together to quell this unrest off before it spins out of control.

Torn

On the one hand, the libertarian in me says that if some redneck yahoo wants hang a plastic ball sack from his trailer hitch, fine. There is no accounting for taste and it is said redneck’s prerogative to brand himself as such. And really, doesn’t the state have some other more pressing issues to address than to outlaw auto accessories? So if I had to pick a side here, my “live and let live” instinct wins this argument but only just.

I get where Spruill is coming from. My sense of decency and decorum demands the castration of these elephantine scrota. I totally get the Delegate’s argument that public display of these “novelties” qualifies as misdemeanor vulgarity. What is the difference really between hanging some plastic balls on your pickup to affixing a massive dildo to the hood? I know I would rather not look into my rearview mirror and see an F-150 propelled rubber cock tailgating me. Yikes!

If nothing else, there is a pretty interesting First Amendment case to be fought here.

Today’s required reading

With Mitt’s big win in Michigan last night, the touring clown show that is the Republican nomination process has been thrown into disarray. Bob Moser has a great piece in The Nation on the Romney campaign’s victory and the happy prospect that this mess will roll on straight to the convention (oh joy!).

For whatever bizarre alchemy of reasons, Romney passed his do-or-die test in Michigan. On Saturday in South Carolina, Huckabee will be on the hot spot--he's holding on to a slim lead over McCain there, with Romney not far behind. McCain needed the Michigan win to boost his South Carolina prospects, but Huckabee's once-rocketing campaign has stalled there as everywhere--and Romney has been running a strong third in the polls. If Huckabee gets his must-win in South Carolina, it will set up a criticical four-way battle in Florida on January 29. Rudy Giuliani desperately needs the state to position himself for Tsunami Tuesday on February 5, but he's tied in the polls with McCain, with Romney and Huckabee in striking distance.

Democrats might have blown off Michigan, but they're certainly getting some goodies from the state. Romney's win makes it all the more likely that the Republicans' indecision will stretch well beyond February 5--all the way to the national convention. It will make terrific theater. And it will ensure that the ultimate Republican nominee--whoever in the world it might be--enters the fall campaign with a divided and perplexed party behind him.

People, that is music to my ears.

Ah, sweet progress

It is the little things really. From Reuters:

KABUL (Reuters) - Male tailors in an Afghan province have been barred from measuring female clients for fittings following a new local ruling that resembles the restrictions the ultra-conservative Taliban imposed on the country when in power.

The decision was made by a council of Islamic clergymen in northeastern Takhar province recently, governor Abdul Latif Ibrahimi said.

"The male tailors have been told to stop measuring women," Ibrahimi told Reuters by phone on Saturday. "They need to be measured by female tailors."

At this rate, Afghanistan will break into the 20th Century sometime around, um, never. Heckuva job, Bushie.

The Michigan Democrats for Romney ad

This is hilarious. Hat tip to Daily Kos.

Making mischief with Mitt in Michigan

Kos is trying to rally Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney in that state’s open primary in an effort to prolong the cat fighting for the GOP nomination. Truly, this is a triple bank shot, but one that has worked before. Godspeed Wolverine State Dems, keep Mitt alive!

All hat, no cattle

So President Dumbass predicts that Israel and the Palestinians will strike a peace deal within the year. That is beyond stupid. He is a lame duck and has done next to nothing in the past seven years to forward serious negotiations, Olmert is deeply unpopular in Israel, and half of Palestine is ruled by Hamas. And despite all of this, Chimpy McHalfwit is going to solve the thorniest foreign policy issue in the Middle East and maybe the world by the force of his clueless optimism and steely yet utterly vacuous will. Just kill me now. Given Bush’s capacity, and some would say propensity, TO ALWAYS FUCK UP EVERYTHING, this peace initiative may well end in a bloodbath. Worst. President. Ever.

Dear Lord, make this stop

Virginia Beach-based huckster and snake-oil salesman Pat Robertson is making a bid to purchase our local paper, the Virginian-Pilot. I find that prospect truly and deeply distressing. Who needs a print version of the 700 Club?

Programmer humor

As a self-professed geek and a code monkey by trade, I find this hilarious and I resolve to use the word lametarded at least once a day for the next week. That may not be P.C. but I think it is funny as hell.

Bill Maher's Dickheads of the Year

It's funny because it's true.

Sometimes markets fail

The next time some Friedman-loving disciple of free market orthodoxy starts harping on the evils of “socialized medicine” (and Mitt, I am looking at you), cram this into his cryhole:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - France, Japan and Australia rated best and the United States worst in new rankings focusing on preventable deaths due to treatable conditions in 19 leading industrialized nations, researchers said on Tuesday.

If the U.S. health care system performed as well as those of those top three countries, there would be 101,000 fewer deaths in the United States per year, according to researchers writing in the journal Health Affairs.

Preventing death seems to me a valid metric to evaluate the efficacy of a healthcare system. By that measure, the US model is more expensive and less effective than the rest of the industrialized world. Denying that fact for the sake of ideological purity condemns thousands of fellow citizens to an untimely death. That may sound a bit harsh but I don’t know how else to put it.

File under “He does not know what he is talking about”

Well, I was sooooo wrong about New Hampshire, putting me in the same company of a great many professional polling outfits that showed Obama with a double digit lead.

The most interesting fact to come out of the voting; it seems that women came out in force for Hillary. Obama won women in Iowa. In NH, the ladies comprised 57% of the electorate and went to HRC over Obama by 12%, a difference of 19,000+ votes.

Huge turnout in NH

Several reports out of New Hampshire indicate that people are coming out in numbers that will likely set records. That bodes well for change candidates like Obama and I am betting, Ron Paul. Furthermore, NH independents can vote in either Party’s Primary and they appear to be leaning heavily towards the Democratic ballot which is going to hurt McCain. Especially when you see sentiments like this:

Ward 11 Clerk Felice Goupil said by 7:45 a.m., 255 residents had voted and 22 new voters were registered at Gossler Park School.

"We're seeing a lot of new faces," she said. "...People are upset and they're coming out."

Upset voters don’t generally vote for the same old same old, so my guess is that Obama wins this thing going away, like by fifteen points or better. Clinton will likely take second with Edwards rounding out the top three.

On the Republican side, with Obama pulling in so much of McCain’s indie support, I think it will be Mitt Romney by maybe a point or to over McCain but that could go either way. Finally, given the numbers rolling out, I would not at all be surprised if Ron Paul shockes a lot of people and lands in third. The folks in New Hampshire love an insurgent candidate and have a wicked Libertarian streak that I think Paul appeals to.

If Hollywood has taught us anything…

It is that one can get around this sort of foolishness with an industrious Kevin Bacon leading a choreographed dance sequence at the old mill just outside of town. If only I could find my Kenny Loggins cassette tapes...

Tom Toles yesterday

Awesome.

The ever mutable Mitt

Not exactly breaking news but Mitt Romney will say just about anything to get elected. Your average used car salesman is more truthful and principled .

Momentum

The primary in New Hampshire was neck and neck between Hillary and Obama going into Iowa. With Obama's win, that appears to have changed in a very big way. Rasmussen has just released a poll from Friday showing Barak Obama with a ten point lead over HRC. This is being billed as the first post-Iowa poll available. Now, I grant you that this is but a single poll but if it is anything close to accurate, wow. The Clinton campaign must be in full-fledged freak out mode.

Update: Just after I posted, I saw that ARG released their post-Iowa poll and they have Obama up in NH by TWELVE. Somebody needs to put Mark Penn on suicide watch.

What I love about the Iowa outcome

My neighbor, a politically savvy guy, called me on Thursday night when he saw the Iowa results and his reactions was priceless:

“Oh my God, a preacher and a black man just won the Iowa Caucus!”

Indeed. When you think about it, that is pretty remarkable in and of itself but I think it also says a lot about where each Party is right now. First, I gotta say I take no small measure of pride in the modern Democratic Party for making a black man its front-runner. That is a long way from the dark days when the Southern Democratic wing created and then perpetuated the dreadful Jim Crow laws. So even if Obama fails to capture the nomination, his win in Iowa is a watershed event in the history of the Party. As Molly Ivins would say, good on us. For the GOP, however, things get a might bit more complicated with Mike Huckabee’s win.

For the Republican evangelical faction, Huck is their kind of guy, a true Bible-thumper of the first order. At the same time, Huckabee’s populist economic rhetoric is stuff of nightmares for the money people in the GOP, especially coming from a hillbilly Baptist preacher. The Club for Growth and the Heritage Foundation types are going to go after Huckabee in New Hampshire with both guns blazing. And herein lies Huckabee’s great flaw as the GOP standardbearer; he exacerbates the great rift in the Republican Party between the social conservative and economic conservative factions.

It is no secret that the Bible-thumpers think the Wall Street crowd is a bunch of snobs and elitists. Conversely, that pro-business wing views the social conservatives as gaggle of rubes and goobers from the sticks. But they forged an uneasy alliance in the modern GOP, one that promised mutual benefit but really, only the pro-business agenda was served. Abortion, pornography, and gambling are still legal but taxes are lower, regulation is a joke, etc. The social cons know they are getting the shaft in this marriage in convenience but there is damn little they can do about it. They have no place else to go. Then along comes Huck, leading the charge of pissed-off, disaffected, and otherwise disappointed values voters, trying the wrest the party from the Brookes Brothers crowd. And like the Huckabee campaign in Iowa, what the Christian conservatives lack for money they can make up for in numbers. The Wall Street wing sees the writing on the wall and they are scared to death. A populist in the White House means an end to their gravy train. They have no choice but the try and destroy Huckabee in New Hampshire because if he makes it to South Carolina and Florida, he may well go all the way.

So the Democrats are trying to find their leader and, in the process, maybe heal some old wounds while the Republicans are facing the prospect of a bloody internecine war and perhaps even schism. Not bad at all…

Half right

So I got Huckabee right and Edwards wrong but I don’t think anyone had Obama winning this by an eight point spread.

Iowa

My quick prediction before I get back to work – it is cold as hell in Iowa and that usually depresses participation. Low turnout means organization and motivation will be paramount. So, I am betting that Edwards’ ground game is as good as advertised and he wins for the Dems while Huckabee, and his legion of always enthusiastic Bible-bangers, takes it for the GOP.

Bonus predictions :
1. Mitt Romney’s response to the outcome, win, lose or draw, will be complete bullshit.

2. Approximately 67% of the country is done with hearing about how fucking special the Iowa caucus is. Lord knows I am.